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Political Assassination

There seems little doubt that the killing of the master-engineer was a political assassination. In the days before his fatal encounter, CCTV cameras were inexplicably disabled in the area. His personal security detail was also relieved from duty to accompany him.

On the morning of the shooting, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed flew to the US. In an unseemly response, Ahmed ignored a public outcry for him to return to the country on the appalling news of the engineer’s death. His absence from the high-profile funeral on July 29, which was mourned by the nation, was seen as unbecoming.

Moreover, Ahmed’s perceived lack of civic duty has sparked widespread public anger especially among the Tigray people. For the past week, the country has witnessed mass demonstrations, with many people suspecting the new ruling faction around Ahmed of having sanctioned the murder of engineer Bekele.

During his US tour, the prime minister has been hosted by the large Ethiopian diaspora. Some of the rallies, including one on the day of Bekele’s funeral in Addis Ababa last Sunday, have featured prominent members associated with the outcast Derg regime sharing the stage with Ahmed.

People in Ethiopia have been aggrieved by what they see as insensitive behavior by the prime minister in not immediately returning to the country to share in the nation’s sorrow over the renowned engineer’s death.

Greeted by Pence & IMF’s Lagarde

While in the US over the past week, premier Ahmed also had a meeting with Vice President Mike Pence, during which Pence talked effusively about future economic ties with Ethiopia.

Another engagement was with Christine Lagarde, the head of the Washington-based International Monetary Fund (IMF). Up to now, the IMF and Western finance capital have been kept at bay in Ethiopia’s development. Projects like the Grand Renaissance Dam have been either self-financed or have relied on China for investment. Lagarde, like Pence, hailed a new future of tighter partnership with Ethiopia.

With the killing of engineer Bekele, the $4 billion dam project in the northwestern region of Ethiopia near the border with Sudan has been thrown into disarray. The unprecedented delay in construction that premier Ahmed controversially announced last month now seems a certainty. If and when it goes ahead, the financing arrangement may require the IMF to step in. The involvement of Western capital is what the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi strenuously sought to avoid. His vision of independent financing was shared by the deceased engineer.

To sum up, Ethiopia appears to be undergoing a deep geopolitical realignment. However, the realignment seems to be going ahead without national consensus, albeit praised on the surface by Western media as “reforms” under the new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The United States is assuming a greater role in the country’s economic future in place of China.

As a strategically important African nation – the African Union’s headquarters are in Addis Ababa, built in 2012 by China with a $200 million grant – an increased influence of Washington in Ethiopia will have repercussions across the continent.

The apparent US-led rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea is key to the intended ouster of China’s foothold on the continent via the Djibouti port, where China last year opened up its first overseas military base.

This shifting geopolitical rearrangement also gives the US and the Gulf Arab states greater dominion over the Red Sea chokepoint in global trade, especially for seaborne oil. That may account for the US-backed Saudi war to control Yemen, which sits opposite to Eritrea astride the Red Sea on the Arabian Peninsula.

New Geopolitical Configuration

In this new geopolitical configuration, Ethiopia under Abiy Ahmed Ali appears to be moving away from its strategic partnership with China to align with the US and its Arab regional allies, Egypt and the Gulf oil sheikhdoms. Abiy’s Muslim heritage is thought to make him amenable to embrace America’s Arab client regimes.

The apparent assassination of engineer Simegnew Bekele is given significance by this strategic power play.

But this US-led orchestration against China, or as Washington would say “great power competition”, is unleashing dangerous political tensions within Ethiopia.

The federal Ethiopian state formed after the revolutionary war against the former Derg regime is severely straining because of premier Ahmed’s perceived favor of sectarian interests under the guise of “reforms”. His premiership appears to be more weighted by Oromo political figures. Given the large Christian-Muslim composition of Ethiopia, there are also fears that the country could be incited into religious conflict.

There is simmering anger that the hallowed public figure of engineer Simegnew Bekele may have been a sacrificial victim in order to assist the US geopolitical power play.

Across Ethiopia there is growing trepidation about the future direction of the country. The dark days of political murder and sectarian persecution, which previously abated after the overthrow of the Derg regime, are haunting Ethiopia once again.

Poignantly, the murder of Simegnew Bekele, whose Christian name means “hope” in his native language, has grievously struck the country’s sense of nationhood and its once bright aspirations for independent development.