Good post. I think 1 and 2 are the most likely possibilities.

Also I want to add there are now 3 or 4 strains of it that have evolved since it started. And some of those strains are more deadly than others. And some they have tests for, and some they don't.

In the US they have not been screening incoming flight passengers. There is very much a normalcy bias. I think a lot of people don't want to "encourage panic" but that shouldn't come at the expense of keeping people entirely in the dark, in case this is a serious threat, people should perhaps begin to prepare and have knowledge for that, so it's not a shock surprise if it ends up being a big deal. Which that itself could cause problems.

In the US they've also basically given up on even trying to test large numbers of people. Washington state apparently admitted it has entered the "community spread" phase there, more or less. It almost feels like the US is trying to spread it, they're doing everything wrong. I think people and organizations in the US are just under-equipped and over-complacent though, on the whole. There's also a huge shortage of test kits. It's kind of a mess. And the number of people trying to silence the discussion of whether this is a bioweapon or not, is sickening. We should at least have the discussion and let the facts bear out. I'm still on the fence about it, but the evidence needs to be looked at and discussed.