A few points: There is no real political will in the US to overturn Lawrence except on behalf of lawmakers in a few very conservative states, so the SCOTUS justices will have to consider how willing they are to rule against public opinion on that issue. Then, there is the 71% approval rating for gay marriage, so overturning that would also go largely against public opinion. To anticipate the response of, "but they also went against public opinion in overturning Roe," yes, they did, but there is also passionate opposition to abortion among conservatives. Even if they don't like gay sex or gay marriage, it's not "killing babies," which is how conservative parents of a gay friend of mine talk about it. I don't see a passionate movement to make gay sex illegal again.

Then there is the question of how the three judges appointed by Trump would rule on LGB issues. They were hand-picked to vote against abortion, but do they care enough about LGB issues to further antagonize the American public and make themselves look out of touch? Thomas and Alito would, but I'm not sure about the others. And reversing a decision like Obergefell that's just 7 years old makes the court look more brazenly political and unprincipled than they like to try to appear.

I see the anti-Roe decision in and of itself as raising the alarm about conservative overreach, so there will be a backlash (already underway) against this decision that will probably include renewed support for defending Lawrence and Obergefell. And the more this decision is shown to affect the lives of real women, the more anger there will be. What if states start prosecuting women for obtaining abortions in other states? That will look like government tyranny. No one likes the idea that the government can interfere in your private life.