Russia's PMC Wagner Now 2km From Operationally Encircling Bakhmut (Artemovsk)

submitted by GoldenDynasty from self.GoldensFirst

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZ60A87mJMc.

Just 2 weeks ago, Russia captured several key villages just north of Bakhmut (Krasna Hora, Paraskoviivka, Blahodatne, etc), now they have recently captured Berkhivka and Yahidne and are now attacking Bakhmut from around 20 different points of attack. This has become a very typical move of the Wagner Group which they call "the cauldron". The idea is to gradually capture territory around a village or town so the village is isolated and you can attack from many different points at once.

If you remember my post about Russia's offensive in Soledar a month ago, you would recall that this offensive would not have been successful without Russia first capturing the mining town, as it is in a very critical position to encircle Bakhmut and the areas north of it. Now the western media is again coping by stating that Bakhmut has very "little strategic value", if they even talk about any sort of strategy and not just pure propaganda at all. However this is clearly incorrect as Ukraine has invested an extremely large number of troops in Bakhmut (up to 50,000+) and Zelensky has told the soldiers previously not to surrender it at all costs. Bakhmut is one of the most heavily fortified areas in the Donbass region and the fall of Bakhmut would leave a critical opening for Russia to then advance towards Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, the fall of those, would essentially be a total victory for Russia in the Donbass region, which would fulfill their major goal, as well as being a massive PR and morale loss to Ukraine and NATO.

The encirclement of Bakhmut has been done by capturing the villages near the town in order to cut off the supply lines into the city. The road to the north has now been cut off since Russia took Yahidne and Berkhivka, and will also allow them to easily advance into the final road connected from Chasiv Yar, as there is nothing but just open land from Yahidne to Bohdanivka and Khromove. Once that is finished, then the fall of Bakhmut would just only be a matter of time.

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[–][deleted] 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

Good write up. Keep us posted. Hard to get accurate information on the situation.

[–]GoldenDynasty[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

As of recently, russia has an operational encirclement on bakhmut now. Now they are 1km away from a full encirclement.
A full encirclement will require them to capture khromove which is nearby and not as fortified after russia captured yahidne and berkhivka. We could see a full encirclement happening to Bakhmut in a couple of days. Furthermore, they've made advances in Bakhmut itself, particularly in the southern and eastern regions. The ukrainians allegedly fled past the Bakhmutka river in the east, allowing Russia easy access to Bakhmut's eastern residential areas. Apparently to some analysts, it seems like ukraine is not budging on withdrawing from bakhmut however so we will most likely see another mariupol like scenario. A full encirclement means that the uk soldiers will be out of food and supplies in a couple of months, so they could be pinned down there until they surrender while russia captures the other surrounding areas in the meanwhile.

I recommend you guys to check out this video for a proper analysis of the situation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBp9GkkYhVE

[–][deleted] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

I saw videos of US mercs being sent there and basically shitting their pants on camera. It's pretty good shit to watch. US "tough guy marines" are crying about how Ukrop snipers will get them if they defect or turn back. My suspicion is that Putin and his buds are stretching out the war just to bleed America and the west of its wealth and to humiliate Ukraine. Wagner group is tough for sure but are they even the most elite of his units?

[–]GoldenDynasty[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

'Stretching out the war' is actually one of their main goals. Its how they can demilitarize Ukraine, NATO, not lose too many soldiers, as well as allow NATO economies to sabotage themselves.

[–]GoldenDynasty[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

To explain the difference, an operational encirclement is when Russia doesn't have direct control of all the roads and supply trails going to Bakhmut but they are near enough within Russia's firing range. So any troops or supplies traveling these roads risk being shot at or ambushed by russian troops. A full encirclement means they have direct control and access to all the roads and trails going to bakhmut.

[–]GoldenDynasty[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Even Zelensky now just debunked the westoid propaganda by talking about the strategic importance of bakhmut and how the fall of it, would result in russia launching a more widespread offensive over the entire donbass flank

[–]GoldenDynasty[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Although Russia liberating the Donbass region seems very close to reality now, and it would fulfill their major goal of their smo, I doubt they would just stop there. They will most likely try to capture Kharkiv, zaporozhia, kherson, as well as odessa. Since they have claimed these lands as part of Russia and odessa is the final region where Ukraine controls the Black Sea. Odessa is also important since they are right next to Russian controlled Transitiria in Moldova, so capturing it would allow Russia to easily send troops into Transitiria in case there were tensions as well as completely cutting off Ukraine from the Black Sea and the fertile farm land and industrial regions.

[–]GoldenDynasty[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

This means that even if Ukraine signs a peace deal after, they will still end up losing in terms of attrition since they will be cut off from all their vital economic points by Russia, and will be forced to capitulate to Russia