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[–]JasonNecks 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

"The markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent." - Keynes

You're predicting a situation where a big, (extremely) powerful, mainstream political movement (in this case Social Justice Progressivism) admits that it is wrong about something. Before making a prediction, we should think hard about what this might look like.

Will it be relatively sudden, or relatively gradual? What is the breaking point for something like this? What historical examples can we look to?

The first historical example of a bunch of people changing their mind about politics that leaps out at me is a significant portion of European and American Socialist Leftists going from pro-USSR to anti-USSR after the Hungarian Revolution was violently suppressed by the Soviet government in 1956. There were many signs before this that the USSR was not a good country to idolize, and maybe a few leftists gave up their pro-soviet stance before 1956, but that was the turning point. I think that the prospects for the progressive left having some sort of political awakening about the threat (to biowomen prisoners, to children who are likely to regret dubious medical intervention, and to adults who also regret dubious medical intervention more often than people realize) is less good than the prospects for the socialist left having a political awakening about the Soviet Union were before the Hungarian Revolution.

A revolution in Eastern Europe is harder to ignore than prisoners being raped or the suffering of detrans children or adults. The New York Times has to report on a revolution, they don’t have to report on the latter two. They certainly didn’t say anything when Jamie Shupe went detrans. There would have to be a truly sensational detrans incident to force the New York Times to report on it, and even then they might be able to bury it on page eight. Even a celebrity’s name attached to the story might not be enough to get coverage. If, god forbid, a famous female prisoner was raped by a TiM then that would make the news, but how many famous female current prisoners can you name?

I think 2030 is very optimistic, barring some sort of black swan event. That’s the date at which I would expect to see some GC victories in the realm of women’s sports, but little more than that.

Everything I just said goes for the US, I’m not making any predictions about the UK.

[–]BEB[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I think it's going to come a lot sooner than that in the US. State after state is jumping on the banning TiM in women sports bandwagon, and some are now starting to put in legislation banning minors from transitioning.

The Republicans seem to have finally woken up about how much political capital they can get off the Equality Act. It's insane that the Democrats are telling American women that we must accept any man or any group of men in spaces where we and our children are naked or vulnerable.

The Democrats are telling us that biological sex is not real and that "gender identity" should trump it under law.

They are indoctrinating our children into gender ideology, and threatening that our children can possibly be taken from us and made into expensive medical experiments. Since close to 2% of US high school students are claiming to be transgender, every school has a considerable # of transgenders and parents are noticing.

So I don't think it's going to take that long. I think breakthroughs have already been made, and people are Peak Transing at a rapid clip in the US. Let's hope it's before those sneaky Democrats get the Equality Act passed.

[–]slushpilot 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I'm afraid it will take a few iterations of "first they came for" until enough institutional voices & then ordinary people are willing to speak up publicly, no longer caring about losing their social capital to appear accepting at all costs. Undoubtedly these issues will start hitting closer & closer to home until enough lines are crossed. Then, the atrocious ideas that this movement has been spreading can finally be ridiculed openly, and the institututions that supported it unquestioningly will start to distance themselves from it.

(Social Justice Progressivism) admits that it is wrong about something

No, that's never going to happen. But if they get shamed, they'll stay quiet about it and try to pretend like it never happened. Many German grandparents also didn't like to talk about their time in the war.

I also can't say how long it will take to burn itself out. There's an entire generation enthralled with this nonsense.