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[–]strictly 4 insightful - 6 fun4 insightful - 5 fun5 insightful - 6 fun -  (9 children)

I find this too evasive. I don't think it describes the patterns.

I think you misunderstand me somewhat, and it describes the pattern I see, but you are free to disagree as you see a different pattern from your perspective.

I think the trans argument that gender expression is only "personality" doesn't play out.

Here is where I think you misunderstand me, as I don't believe that gender expression is only personality for most trans people. I believe in blanchardianism (not everything though). I think some transition due to being very GNC, but I don't think most transition for being very GNC in the west. I think among transitioners AGP/AAP is very prevalent, and usually they are more concerned about the body they want to have, not everyone though. Just as some gynephilic people might be more attracted to femininity than biological females, I think some people with autogynphilia might be more into femininity than desiring a female body.

There is a pattern of trans people being far more likely to identify as gay relative to their gender identity and far more likely to identify as gnc relative to their gender identity than the average population.

What are you trying to say here? You mean males who identify as women are more likely to be masculine and attracted to females than the average female? I agree with that, many of these male transitioners are "transbians" as you say, way more than we would expect had they truly been "female". But that seems like a weird argument for you to make. So are you actually trying to say that unusually many of the males who transition are homosexual and GNC? I agree with that too, homosexuals and GNC people are over represented among transitioners, but I think the AGP group is an even greater group. AGPs might be same-sex attracted too though (but usually not exclusively) and GNC (some crossdressed for sexual/gender euphoric reasons before transition). Note, this not a judgement of people with AGP/AAP, I don't really care if someone has AGP/AAP, I just don't think it makes someone the opposite sex.

[–]HeimdeklediROAR 1 insightful - 6 fun1 insightful - 5 fun2 insightful - 6 fun -  (8 children)

agree with that, many of these male transitioners are "transbians" as you say, way more than we would expect had they truly been "female"

I didn’t realize “females” were supposed to keep to some “natural” percentage of non-lesbians.

[–]strictly 6 insightful - 6 fun6 insightful - 5 fun7 insightful - 6 fun -  (7 children)

I didn’t realize “females” were supposed to keep to some “natural” percentage of non-lesbians.

Expect, not supposed. Had they been "female" we would have expected the same distribution of sexual orientation as among females, and we are not seeing that.

[–]HeimdeklediROAR 1 insightful - 6 fun1 insightful - 5 fun2 insightful - 6 fun -  (6 children)

Seems like you’re presuming that survey results = actual number of lesbians in real life = “natural” biological rate of homosexuality among women, is that correct?

[–]strictly 7 insightful - 6 fun7 insightful - 5 fun8 insightful - 6 fun -  (5 children)

Seems like you’re presuming that survey results = actual number of lesbians in real life = “natural” biological rate of homosexuality among women, is that correct?

Oh so you think lesbians actually outnumber straight women? Lesbians are the smallest sexual minority according to data, but if it would have to fit the sexual orientation distribution of the woman-identifying males then lesbians would the largest group, outnumbering even straight women.

[–]VioletRemihomosexual female (aka - lesbian) 6 insightful - 1 fun6 insightful - 0 fun7 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Last USA survey was interesting, there amount of lesbians decreased drastically (from 1.5% to 0.8%), but amount of transmen and female non-binary increased from 0.1% to something like 3-4% of population. And at the same time amount of gay men not changed.

[–]reluctant_commenter 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Hey, sorry to bother you on an old comment Violet but I'm trying to put together a post about LGB prevalence statistics. Do you know what survey this?

[–]VioletRemihomosexual female (aka - lesbian) 6 insightful - 1 fun6 insightful - 0 fun7 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

It was big twitter thread from a person who was banned.

She was comparing reports of different years. Previously gay and lesbian were around same %, gay men were slightly more than lesbians, and transgender were very few, but today lesbians are half of gay and amount of transgender and bisexual increased by 5 times.

I only found 2020 links, but there were 2014 and other years to compare.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/329708/lgbt-identification-rises-latest-estimate.aspx

https://i.imgur.com/N2bUBN6.png

It was smth like lesbians 1.1%, gay men 1.2%, but became lesbians 0.7% and gay men 1.4%, but at the same time female transgender (transmen) increased by almost 30 times or something like that, while male transgenders (transwomen) increased only by 3-4 times.

You can try searching other similar polls. I checked 2017 and 2014 reports on that same site, they have no specification on who is who, just "LGBT raised to 4.5%".

[–]reluctant_commenter 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Thank you!! Will keep looking, appreciate it. :) Hope you're doing well.

[–]HeimdeklediROAR 1 insightful - 5 fun1 insightful - 4 fun2 insightful - 5 fun -  (0 children)

No one can say without good data.