Intelligence take on Russian invasion of Ukraine

submitted by jet199 from threadreaderapp.com

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[–]iamonlyoneman 8 insightful - 2 fun8 insightful - 1 fun9 insightful - 2 fun -  (3 children)

LOL ok sorry pal you lost me at "russia ran out of ammunition for precision strikes in a few hours"

[–][deleted] 5 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 0 fun6 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Russia has the income of Texas, it's believable. You're used to the level of warfare the US can bring. I'd be impressed if Texas could sustain precision strikes for 6hrs.

[–]iamonlyoneman 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

I don't think Texas has been stockpiling weapons for a few decades so I'm not sure that's a fair comparison. Also Texas doesn't make nukes locally.

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 2 fun1 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

The Pantex Plant in Texas "is the nation's only nuclear weapons assembly and disassembly facility."

There's a lot of military equipment kept here and considering the extreme budget of the military I would assume we have more hardware here than most countries.

Considering their performance in Ukraine I think Texas might actually be a stronger conventional military power than Russia.

[–]StillLessons 7 insightful - 2 fun7 insightful - 1 fun8 insightful - 2 fun -  (7 children)

This is a very interesting post. I have seen almost precisely the opposite take posted as well. Given that we are about 72 hours into this beast, the fog of war is still the dominant factor.

Given that the situation is still so new and as such, which narrative is more correct is as yet uncertain, there is only one thing that we can glean for certain from this post. Note the source. This is the western intelligence perspective. If they are right, they'll smell like roses. If they turn out to be wrong, this will further the embarrassment they have suffered since the Afghanistan debacle.

I'd say by Monday we should have a better idea. Until then, we're all spitballing.

[–]jet199[S] 5 insightful - 2 fun5 insightful - 1 fun6 insightful - 2 fun -  (2 children)

Russia planned to take Kiev in 2 days. 72 hours is already too long.

[–]StillLessons 5 insightful - 2 fun5 insightful - 1 fun6 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

A war that follows the plan is a rare beast indeed.

[–][deleted] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

the Russians who claimed 2 days to total victory.

Where did they claim this? I've been following Russian propaganda channels all week and I haven't seen anything about this.

[–]Zapped 3 insightful - 2 fun3 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 2 fun -  (3 children)

Things have played out pretty true as Western Intelligence has predicted. General Milley has predicted that Kyiv will fall within 72 hours.

[–]CleverFoolOfEarth 2 insightful - 3 fun2 insightful - 2 fun3 insightful - 3 fun -  (0 children)

Milley's a twat. It's not super relevant to this conversation but he is.

[–]jet199[S] 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (1 child)

Tick tock.

Keiv has now been cleared of Russian forces.

More tanks on the way, however.

[–]Zapped 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I haven't checked the news in the past 6 hours. What changed?

[–]Zapped 4 insightful - 2 fun4 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

This is the kind of personal/professional insight I like to hear.

End game: The US steps up covert armament of Taiwan.

I wonder what the U.S. and China will learn from this and how it will affect things moving forward between the two.