Jason Maurer: 45-year-old Ohio bartender tells world "shut up and get your vaccine," dead five weeks after second Moderna mRNA shot - The COVID Blog

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[–]ActuallyNot 3 insightful - 2 fun3 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 2 fun -  (2 children)

5 weeks?

I the USA, a male's life expectancy at 45 is another 34 years.

There are 470 5 week periods in 34 years, so you would expect of 470 45 year old men, about one to die every 5 weeks.

If more than 470 45-year-olds have been vaccinated, you'd need more that the death five weeks later to attribute it to the vaccine.

To compere with that 470 number, there have been 369,000,000 vaccine doses given in the USA. So you're looking at wanting more than about 369,000,000/470 = 780,000 such deaths to indicate an increased risk from the vaccine.

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Wait, 369,000,000 doses were given to 45-year-old men? Wow, they are vaxxhogs, those guys.

[–]ActuallyNot 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Nah. Only some of them were given to 45 year old men. The figures are kind of ballpark rather than precise.

This guy was a 45 year old man, so I was considering the probabilities that would arise if everyone was a 45 year old man. Useful for considering whether this particular death is an indication that there is an indicator of a statistically significant elevated risk of death due to the vaccine.