What do you think would happen to all the areas of the Russian Federation if Russia were to fall apart?

submitted by Zapped from self.AskSaidIt

Which areas would form independent states, and which parts would merge with or be absorbed by others? What would the political arena look like? Would it be a mess like the Middle East or would we see alliances and basically two sides at odds with each other?

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[–]rubberbiscuit 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I can't really answer this but for those interested in these type of discussions, there is a good podcast, really small amateur but honest, that I would recommend,

https://open.spotify.com/show/66O5tbUj7GSjm0HhOfChaL?si=3dfd552ea6f846b0

[–]Alienhunter 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

If the Russian government totally falls (which is unlikely) it'd possible you'd see certain areas of the country such as Chechnya attempt to gain independence, at the very least we could expect an increase in terrorism in such regions.

More likely is that with the removal of Russia as a military power the world balance of power would shift significantly and it might trigger a world war between the US and China as the latter attempts to gain control of Russia's asian holdings. We can expect that Japan would move to occupy the Kurils and potentially Sakhalin depending on the nature of the Russian collapse and that would put US aligned forces in near direct conflict with Chinese forces.

Of course the potential of the Russian federation falling apart completely would involve the Russian nuclear arsenal going who knows where. Which is why I suspect such a situation could only follow a actual direct war between NATO and Russia and most certainly would end with either a nuclear exchange or a status quo peace upon threat of nuclear exchange. The nuclear exchange would probably fix global warming. And Gretta Thunborg would need to find a new job. Europe would freeze to death just like they are now. And Africa, likely Nigeria, would be in a good position to become a world power.

[–]Zapped[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Going further, then, would the U.S. try to contain the Pacific rim with the help of its allies as China tries to gain property to the west?

[–]Alienhunter 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

China will likely be more focused on extending influence through Asia and Africa and making satellite nations of former soviet republics. I think they'd gain little from direct conflict with the US in the Pacific but I suspect you'll see a lot of military buildup in the Pacific especially along the Ryukyu islands and potentially the Kurils in such a situation. If Moscow totally collapses the far west of Russia isn't exactly in a position where they can be independent and they'll likely have to rely on alliances with a different power. Their choices being essentially China or America by proxy of Japan.

Places like Sakhalin and potentially even Kamchatka might see potential alliances with the US sphere is more beneficial. Especially once we consider that overland transportation in the region is virtually non-existent and they rely on naval trade which the US largely dominates in naval capacity compared to China.

Places like Vladivostok or the Jewish Autonomous Oblast I think are more likely to get dominated by Chinese interests in such a scenario.

However I don't really see a "total Russian collapse" scenario as realistic. It's far more likely that Russia simply becomes less relevant as a world power and increasingly beholden to follow the Chinese sphere of influence. I suspect a kind of Neo-Cold war with a number of proxy wars on the fringes to be the most likely scenario. Similar to Orwell's "The Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism" albeit with a dipole quasi-stable mutually beneficial conflict state rather than the tripole one he envisioned. Unless we count neutrally aligned states.

[–]Zapped[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I don't see a collapse, either. It's just a thought experiment. I may post the same question but with different countries.

[–]Musky 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

I upvoted but I don't really know how to answer, I am not very familiar with the Russian government and political divisions.

There's 46 oblasts, 22 republics, 9 krais, 4 autonomous okrugs, 3 federal cities, and 1 autonomous Jewish oblast. I imagine the divisions would fall somewhere within these.

If the Russian Federation isn't propped up by the rest of the world out of concern for the nuclear arsenal, that is. We did it before.

[–]Zapped[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Me either, although i spoke in length early this year with an American who lived in or near Moscow for a while. He spoke of Moscow being like any major world city, but as soon as you head to the suburbs, it becomes a third world country with the black markets taking the place of law and order. He also told me his opinion of why Putin started the war. His thought is that Putin knows his time is near and it's a money grab somehow. Putin has heavily invested in the West. Even if Russia loses, Putin wins. I don't see how that could work out, honestly.

[–]aaarrgh 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

the NWO would reign (at our expense)

[–]JewsAreOfColor 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

That won’t happen. Russia is just going to keep getting stronger and stronger while Europe becomes even more and more of a toxic force in world politics. Soon, the European Union will be more dangerous than Hitler ever was, and you will be begging for Russia to stop them.