you are viewing a single comment's thread.

view the rest of the comments →

[–]Zapped[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

I think you should post that question. It is a good and valid one. I sort of agree, but it seems to me to be a calculated preliminary move that assumes the worst for Russia if they didn't move in. I think they are risking more than they could possibly gain. Putin has a lot of avenues for influence all over the world, but if they are disrupted, he could lose it all. I feel like this is an act of desperation. It has been said that Russia's economy is not doing well, so maybe he feels like he is not risking much. This will cause oil and natural gas prices to go up, but if he has no way to move it now, how does this help?

[–]StillLessons 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

The people who would be interested in the question I pose will read this post, because your question is of equal interest. Thus they will see the question here.

I agree this is an act of desperation. That's part of why I lean against the "Russia as aggressor" camp. To my eye, the Russians are not thinking in terms of gain; they're thinking in terms of survival. They know that taking Ukraine has destroyed huge amounts of potential business and development; they're not stupid. They have sunk billions of dollars into the Nordstream projects. They know those investments are severely threatened by their current actions. If they were in "expansion" mode, they would be protecting the vehicles of that expansion. The fact that instead of protecting those assets, they are putting this investment at risk tells me they see the existential threats to them as sufficiently dangerous that they cannot afford to worry about "getting more". They are now acting to try to defend what they have. As they say in football, "the best defense is a good offense." I see the Russians taking that dictum to its logical conclusion.

[–]Zapped[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

I wonder what has been going on covertly between the West and Russia that we haven't heard. The West could be putting screws to some of Putin's "avenues" I referred to that would explain why he feels the need to take this risk.

[–]StillLessons 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Germany is also a very interesting player here. While the risks to Russia are now obvious and becoming reality in real time, we shouldn't forget that the other end of Nordstream is Germany, and what do they do if the gas is actually cut off? These kinds of risk are not just one sided... are the Germans ready to face the cost of this conflict head on?

[–]Zapped[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I wonder what agreements and concessions by the rest of the West will be made to help them out.