Would there be interest in a sub about making future predictions?

submitted by Aureus from (self.AskSaidIt)

EDIT: The sub is up at /s/PredictTheFuture/

Metaculus is a popular website that allows users to predict the future and ranks them based on the accuracy of their predictions.

Would anyone want to see a similarly-focused sub on SaidIt?

Accurate predictions would be helpful to users, since users could anticipate the future and thus profit off opportunities or avoid risks. This, in turn, would add value to SaidIt. Finally, there would be a great sense of prestige for users who make accurate predictions.

Any takers? If there's interest I would be happy to make a sub like this.

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[–]magnora7 6 insightful - 1 fun6 insightful - 0 fun7 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Yeah I always thought it would be cool if we could make (non-monetary) "bets" on future events in some way, and we could find out who is the best at predicting things. I think it'd be fun.

[–]Jesus 6 insightful - 1 fun6 insightful - 0 fun7 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

There's actually a term in the conspiracy community called olegodden or demmegolden or something like that. I forgot the spelling. It was basically a community that predicted false flags and events through whatever means, foreshadowing in media, films, numerology or just guessing.

[–]missdaisycan 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

And possibly eye-opening...

[–]Aureus[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Made it, check out /s/PredictTheFuture!

[–][deleted]  (1 child)

[deleted]

    [–]JonVoightKampff 1 insightful - 4 fun1 insightful - 3 fun2 insightful - 4 fun -  (0 children)

    That would be Reddit.

    [–][deleted]  (1 child)

    [deleted]

      [–]Aureus[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

      Go for it! /s/PredictTheFuture

      [–]scrubking 1 insightful - 6 fun1 insightful - 5 fun2 insightful - 6 fun -  (1 child)

      I predict you will not make the sub.

      [–]Aureus[S] 1 insightful - 2 fun1 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

      Your prediction was incorrect! /s/PredictTheFuture

      [–]LarrySwinger2 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

      If you do create it, feel free to promote it on /r/DiscoverSaidit.

      [–]Aureus[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

      Done! https://saidit.net/s/DiscoverSaidit/comments/5q2p/spredictthefuture_want_to_predict_the_future_of/

      [–]StBlops2cel_is_Lord 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (2 children)

      I predict trouble in the Middle East.

      [–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

      That's no prediction, that's an axiom.

      [–]StBlops2cel_is_Lord 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

      Oh, sorry, lemme try again:

      I predict Reddit will become a shit SJW site full of Commies and trannies.

      [–]Grateful 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

      I think that would be an interesting sub.

      [–]Aureus[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

      Come check it out: /s/PredictTheFuture

      [–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

      Here's the problem: If you have enough of anybody making enough guesses about the future, odds are given any event at least someone is going to be correct. In fact given enough 50/50 questions you can expect over the long term to be right about half of the time, which from a cursory glance certainly seems to be what the top users have been doing. Though the rankings are really obscuring that.

      Anyway, I don't see a point.

      [–]Harf_Grifter 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

      Whoa whoa whoa back up there bud—you’re assuming that potential users of such a sub appreciate “statistics” and “logic”. Maybe some of us just want to live our best emotional lives.

      [–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

      Probably. If one desires to live as the animals and give up the products of reason there is plenty of wilderness. Can't say I ever understood such people.

      [–]Harf_Grifter 1 insightful - 3 fun1 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 3 fun -  (0 children)

      I desire to live like a pampered domestic cat. Does that count?

      [–]Tortoise 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

      Send me a link if you make this.

      [–]Aureus[S] 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

      Check it out here: /s/PredictTheFuture/