On Ukraine's missile attack on the Nuclear Power Plant in Kursk region:

The Ukrainians launched these missiles ostensibly as an act of desperation. You destroy and potentially damage a nuclear power plant, that has implications for a large region. The good news is the Russians report no radiation leaks and others in the region that are monitoring these say they don't detect any radiation leaks.

This act of desperation is designed, I'm afraid, to do to us in Ukraine what Netanyahu is doing to us in the Middle East, which is to drag in the US. What has to happen in Ukraine is the president needs to shut down this regime. It's dangerous. This is a careless, irresponsible action and we don't want something like this to happen in the future and succeed.

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On the nearly 7,000 Americans trapped in Lebanon

We should keep in mind we do have a Marine Expeditionary Unit in the area, almost 6,000 Marines; normally the reason we maintain Marine Expeditionary Units is to rescue American citizens in this kind of situation.

The Israelis have killed 7,000 people in and around Beirut over the last several days. That makes it very difficult for commercial airlines to fly in and pick people up. It's a bad situation and I don't know why we waited this long because it's been clear for some time Netanyahu planned to attack southern Lebanon.

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On the status of Israel's incursion into Lebanon

I've been hearing the same thing from my sources, that when the special forces went in on the ground to try and "clear the way", they weren't able to make much progress and many of them were wounded or killed. The troops that came after them were subjected to the same kind of ambush tactics the Israelis saw back in 1982 though these may be worse because of the weapons systems they're using. Someone told me, and this is now a day old, that the Israelis had taken 149 casualties. That may be true. We know the Israeli Defense Minister, when asked about casualties, said "high losses are a cost of fighting this 'just war'."

Other (potential) players

I know from reports that Russian bases in Syria were bombed by the Israeli air force (note below). Not a good way to do business if you're trying to minimize the number of people against you. So Putin has essentially told Israel to get out of Lebanon.

(Note: Clayton clarifies that it was a weapons depot the Israelis struck but I'm not clear from various reports whether it was Russia's or Iran's. Max Blumenthal said yesterday that "Israel struck a weapons storehouse in Latakia on the coast of Syria directly adjacent to the Russian air base at Khmeimim, the largest Russian air base in the Middle East; also near a Russian naval base in Tartus.")

The other group we haven't talked about is the Turks. A million people have already fled Lebanon and guess where they go? They flee to Turkey. The Turks already have 3-4 million refugees from the Syrian war, now they'll get more from Lebanon and the foreign minister said that's unacceptable. I'm getting the impression the Turks are nearing the point of intervening militarily if the IDF doesn't end its operations in Lebanon.

On what Israel's response to Iran will be

The Israelis have not yet responded, which is interesting if the Iranian attack was as strategically irrelevant as they claim. I don't have the Battleground Damage Assessment, I don't get to look at the satellite photography. I'm told that Iran's attack involving 180 missiles, some of them hypersonic, actually damaged airfields and aircraft.

The lack of Israeli response does suggest the Iranians had some impact in that area because they're almost entirely dependent on the air force. That's one of the reasons the Iranians made clear they know where the aircraft are and are going to target them because without close air support for the Israeli army on the ground, they're probably not going to get very far in Lebanon and the Israelis know that.

On what Iran's subsequent response will be

Iran has been listening, as everyone in the Middle East has been listening, to Vladimir Putin and secondarily President Xi and their repeated counsel has been "don't act rashly, exercise restraint, don't give reason for someone to go to war against you." They've listened to this and have now concluded this restraint hasn't worked.

On where the US fits in

I'm sure you've seen the reports that we, through our representatives on the ground over there, had told Hizbullah that we were ready for a negotiated ceasefire with Hizbullah and that was the reason for the meeting. That meeting was identified, found and targeted by our capabilities; without our participation, without our ISR capabilities, our electronic capabilities, the Israelis could not carry off something on the scale you saw in Beirut recently against Hizbullah. Everyone knows that, it may be a secret to the American people that we're that involved but everyone in the region knows it and so does President Putin.

Cyprus and Azerbaijan

And I think Iran has now said, that's it, we're not going to exercise any more restraint and we have the ability to deliver punishing strikes. I've seen estimates that for at least 4 or 5 days Iran could launch 100 missiles an hour against Israel. The Iranians also know where the Israelis will go, i.e., Cyprus, and that's why Erdogan has said "don't try to use Cyprus as a launch pad against Hizbullah, if you do that we'll become involved."

Then there's Azerbaijan, which has been providing oil to the Israelis through Turkey and Erdogan has allowed it to move without interruption. That could end soon because the Turkish population is furious and wants it stopped. And I think the Azeri Turks, whatever their dislikes of Iran, are probably equally sensitive to this. Remember, the Azerbaijani were supported in their last war with Armenia by the Israelis, who helped them with unmanned aircraft.

But the Iranians know the Israelis have been given license if they want to go into Azerbaijan where they can set up, refuel and then launch strikes against Iran. I suspect that if the Israelis do it, Azerbaijan will be drawn into the war unless Erdogan, who's very close to the Azeri Turks in Azerbaijan, intervenes to stop it.

This has always been my concern from the very beginning, the tendency to treat everyone in the region - Arabs, Turks, Persians - with contempt, as though they're some sort of backwater, there's no human capital, there's no sophistication, there's no technology. Well, that is wrong and we're going to get an education the hard way very shortly, and I think it's going to be the death knell of Israel.

In a sane world the President of the United States would intervene: pull the plug on Kiev completely and give Netanyahu 48 hours to come up with a negotiated agreement to end what Israel is doing throughout the region or risk the US walking away and leaving them on their own.

That would require a president who had a clear picture of our true national interests. We have no national interests in a war with Russia or Iran or anyone else in the Middle East. But both Zelensky and Netanyahu are trying to drag us into their conflicts. It needs to stop.